Premier League 26/27 · Round 7 ·
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal FC preview: Nottingham host Arsenal with the visitors carrying the sharper attack
Arsenal arrive at the City Ground second in the table and with the market pricing them as clear favourites, while Nottingham are winless at home this season. The home side have not scored a single goal in their three matches at this ground, which is the sharpest edge in the whole preview.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
Nottingham are without forward Igor Jesus, who has scored 1 goal this season, 20% of the side's goals in this competition, and defender Nikola Milenkovic through injury. Arsenal also have two players out, defender William Saliba and forward Christos Tzolis, both injured. Neither of Arsenal's absentees is among their top three scorers, so the visitors lose less of their attacking output than Nottingham do.
Players to watch
Dan Ndoye leads Nottingham with 2 goals from 6 matches, which is 40% of their total, and he ranks 15th in the scoring chart. Morgan Gibbs-White has supplied 2 assists. For Arsenal, Bukayo Saka has 3 goals from 6 matches, 30% of their total, and sits sixth in the scoring chart, while Declan Rice has 3 assists. Saka's output is the more reliable of the two leading scorers.
Recent form
Arsenal are second in the form table with 15 points from their last six league matches, a 5W-0D-1L record, while Nottingham are 15th with 5 points and a 1W-2D-3L record. The visitors have won their last two matches, scoring 12 goals across their last six, while Nottingham have lost their last two and failed to score in three of their last six. Arsenal have also had one day less rest than Nottingham since their last match in any competition.
Where they stand
Arsenal sit second with 15 points from 6 matches, while Nottingham are 15th with 5 points. At home, Nottingham have 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with a goal difference of -2, while Arsenal have 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss away, with a goal difference of 0. The visitors' away record is clearly the stronger of the two venue splits.
Head to head
Across the 10 meetings since 2019, Arsenal have won 6, Nottingham 2, with 2 draws, and the goals read 20 for Arsenal against 4 for Nottingham. In the 5 meetings at this ground, Nottingham have won 2, Arsenal 1, with 2 draws, and the goals are 3-2 in Nottingham's favour. The most recent meeting, in January this year, ended 0-0.
Attacking threat
Arsenal hold a large attacking edge, scoring 1.0 goals per away match across 3 away matches, which is worse than the league average for an away side on the road but only marginally so. Nottingham have scored 0 goals in their 3 home matches, which is worse than the league average for a home side at home by a large margin. Across the whole season, Arsenal average 1.7 goals per match against Nottingham's 0.8.
Defensive solidity
Both sides stand the same distance from their own league baseline defensively, so the edge is level. Nottingham concede 0.7 goals per home match across 3 home matches, which is better than the league average conceded by a home side at home by a clear margin. Arsenal concede 1.0 goals per away match across 3 away matches, also better than the league average conceded by an away side on the road by a clear margin.
Shot efficiency
Arsenal average 4.5 shots on goal per match, compared with 3.5 for Nottingham, so the visitors work the opposing goalkeeper harder. Nottingham see more of their shots blocked, at 4.5 per match against Arsenal's 4.83, but the gap is small. Arsenal also hold more possession, 59% against 48.17%.
When goals arrive
Nottingham's scoring is spread evenly across five bands, with 20% of their goals in each of 0-15, 16-30, 46-60, 61-75 and 76-90. Arsenal are most dangerous in the 46-60 window, scoring 40% of their goals there. Nottingham concede 38% of their goals in 46-60, against 20% of the goals they score in that window, while Arsenal concede 40% in each of 46-60 and 31-45, against 40% and 0% of the goals they score in those windows respectively.
Goal environment
Across all matches this season, 50% of Nottingham's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while 66.67% of Arsenal's have. Nottingham's home matches are the lower-scoring ones: 0% of their home matches have gone over 2.5 goals, against 100% of their away matches. Arsenal's away matches are also lower-scoring, with 33% going over 2.5 goals, against 100% of their home matches.
The verdict
The market prices Arsenal as clear favourites, and the underlying numbers support that: Nottingham have not scored at home this season, while Arsenal have won four of their last five away matches. The visitors' second-half scoring strength, with 70% of their goals after the break, meets a Nottingham side that concedes 75% of their goals in the second half. Expect Arsenal to control the match, with the home side's best hope being the defensive solidity they have shown at the City Ground.