Premier League 26/27 · Round 7 ·
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa preview: Newcastle host Aston Villa with both attacks carrying questions
Newcastle welcome Aston Villa to St. James Park with the home side holding a clear attacking edge but a leaky defence. The market prices Newcastle at 42% to win, while the season numbers point to a high-scoring match.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
Newcastle are without three players, including two of their leading scorers. Jacob Ramsey and Anthony Elanga, both unavailable through injury, have scored 3 goals between them, 30% of the side's goals in this competition. Joe Willock, also on 2 goals, remains available and becomes the main attacking threat. Aston Villa have five players out, all with injury labels, but none of their top scorers are missing. Nicolas Jackson and Alysson are both fit and available.
Players to watch
Joe Willock leads Newcastle's available scorers with 2 goals in 6 matches, a modest return that reflects the team's broader attacking struggles. Harvey Barnes has provided 2 assists from the forward line. For Aston Villa, Nicolas Jackson has 2 goals in 5 matches, a 33% share of the team's goals. Johan Manzambi has contributed 1 goal and 2 assists in just 3 matches, making him the most productive creator on either side.
Recent form
Newcastle arrive in better league form, taking 8 points from their last six matches compared to Aston Villa's 5. The home side's last six league results read two wins, two draws and two losses, while Aston Villa have managed just one win in that span. Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five home matches, and Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last five away matches. Newcastle lost their most recent league match, while Aston Villa drew theirs.
Table position
Newcastle sit 11th with 8 points from 6 matches, while Aston Villa are 16th with 5 points. At home, Newcastle have won 1, drawn 2 and lost none, with a goal difference of +1. Aston Villa's away record is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss, with a goal difference of -3. The home side's unbeaten home record contrasts with Aston Villa's mixed away form.
Head to head
Across the last 10 meetings, Newcastle have won 5 times, Aston Villa 3 times, with 2 draws. The goal difference is 22-15 in Newcastle's favour. At St. James Park, in the 5 meetings there, Newcastle have won 3, Aston Villa 1, with 1 draw, and the goals read 15-6. The most recent meeting was a 3-1 Newcastle win at Aston Villa, but that was outside this competition.
Attacking threat
Newcastle hold a clear attacking edge, scoring 2.0 goals per home match compared to Aston Villa's 1.0 away. Newcastle's home rate is marginally better than the league average for a home side, while Aston Villa's away rate is marginally worse than the league average for an away side. Newcastle's overall season rate of 1.7 goals per match is also better than Aston Villa's 1.0.
Defensive solidity
Both defences are worse than the league average, but Newcastle's home record is the more concerning. Newcastle concede 1.7 goals per home match, clearly worse than the league average for a home side. Aston Villa concede 2.0 goals per away match, marginally worse than the league average for an away side. The defensive edge is level, with both sides standing the same distance from their own baseline.
Shot efficiency
Newcastle average 3.67 shots on goal per match, slightly more than Aston Villa's 3.5. Newcastle also see more of their shots blocked, at 3.0 per match compared to Aston Villa's 2.5. The home side's higher possession, 52.33% against 48.17%, supports their slightly greater attacking volume.
When goals arrive
Newcastle are equally dangerous in the 0-15 and 61-75 minute windows, scoring 30% of their goals in each. Aston Villa are equally dangerous in the 61-75 and 76-90 minute windows, scoring 33% of their goals in each. Newcastle concede most heavily in the 31-45 minute window, 31% of their goals against, while Aston Villa concede 36% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window.
Goal environment
Newcastle's matches have been high-scoring, with 83% of their games going over 2.5 goals. Aston Villa's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 67% of cases. Newcastle's home matches are even more extreme, with 100% of them going over 2.5 goals. Aston Villa's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 67% of cases.
What to expect
Newcastle's home attack is clearly stronger than Aston Villa's away attack, but both defences are vulnerable. The home side's unbeaten home record and higher league position point to a Newcastle edge, while Aston Villa's recent away form and second-half scoring suggest they can contribute. The season numbers point to a high-scoring match, with both teams likely to find the net.