Serie A 26/27 · Round 6 ·
Lazio Rome vs AC Monza preview: Lazio host Monza with the visitors' away defence under the spotlight
Lazio welcome Monza to the Stadio Olimpico with the hosts unbeaten in Serie A this season and sitting third on 13 points. The single most important finding is the away side's defensive record on the road, where Monza have conceded 2.7 goals per match across 3 away matches, a large gap against the league average.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing and what it costs
Lazio are without four players for this match. Albert Gudmundsson, a forward, is out through injury, and his absence removes a scorer: he has 1 goal this season, which is 12% of the side's goals in this competition. Danilo Cataldi, a midfielder, and goalkeeper Alessio Furlanetto are also injured, while defender Luca Pellegrini is unavailable. Monza have three players out, all through injury: midfielders Patrick Ciurria and Matteo Pessina, plus defender Jan Ziolkowski. None of those three has scored or assisted in the league this season, so Monza's attacking output is not directly reduced by their absences.
The scorers carrying each side
Davide Frattesi has been Lazio's most productive player in the league this season, scoring 3 goals in 5 matches, which is 38% of the team's goals. Tijjani Noslin has added 2 goals in 4 matches, while Nuno Tavares and Mattia Zaccagni each have 2 assists. For Monza, Gustavo Varela has scored 4 goals in 4 matches, exactly half of the side's total, including one penalty. Exequiel Zeballos and Jay Robinson have one goal each, and Ricardo Mangas and Samuele Birindelli have 2 assists apiece. Varela's share of Monza's goals is the highest of any player on either side.
Recent results and momentum
Lazio arrive in far better form, taking 13 points from their last five league matches compared to 4 for Monza. Lazio's last five results read won, drew, won, won, won, and they are unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions. Monza's last five league results are won, lost, drew, lost, lost, though their most recent match was a win. Lazio have kept three clean sheets in their last six matches, while Monza have managed just one in the same span. Both sides last played eight days ago, so rest is not a differentiator here.
The table and the venue records
Lazio sit third on 13 points, while Monza are 15th with 4 points. The gap is large, but the venue records tell a more specific story. Lazio have won 1 and drawn 1 of their 2 home matches, with a home goal difference of 1. Monza have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their 3 away matches, with an away goal difference of -4. Lazio's away form has actually been stronger than their home form, with 3 wins from 3 on the road, while Monza have taken just 1 point from 3 away matches.
History between these two
Across 7 meetings from 2006 to 2025, Lazio have won 4 times, Monza have won 0, and there have been 3 draws. The goal tally in those meetings is 13 for Lazio and 5 for Monza, and the most recent meeting, in February 2025, ended 5-1 to Lazio. Six of the seven meetings were in this competition, including the most recent one. The average total goals across all meetings is 2.57, and both teams scored in 57.1% of them. Monza have not beaten Lazio in any of the last five meetings.
How dangerous each side looks
Lazio score 1.5 goals per home match across 2 home matches, while Monza score 1.3 goals per away match across 3 away matches. Both figures are level with the league average for their respective venue, so neither side holds a clear attacking edge in this fixture. Lazio's overall season scoring rate is 1.6 goals per match, marginally better than the league average, and Monza's is also 1.6, with the same marginal edge. The attacking comparison is essentially even, with no side standing out from the other or from the league.
Who is more likely to keep it tight
The defensive contrast is the clearest signal in this match. Lazio concede 1.0 goals per home match across 2 home matches, which is better than the league average for a home side, a clear gap. Monza concede 2.7 goals per away match across 3 away matches, which is worse than the league average for an away side, a large gap. Lazio hold a large defensive edge, and it is the single biggest difference between the two teams. Lazio have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches, while Monza have none in their away matches.
Shots on target and blocked shots
Monza average 5.6 shots on goal per match, which is more than Lazio's 3.8. Monza also see more of their shots blocked, at 3.2 per match compared to Lazio's 2.8. Lazio average 5.4 shots off goal per match, higher than Monza's 4.6. The possession figures are close, with Lazio at 48.0% and Monza at 46.2%, both below the league average of 50.1%. Monza work the opposing goalkeeper harder, but Lazio are slightly more accurate in avoiding blocked shots.
When each team is most dangerous
Lazio score 38% of their goals between minutes 46 and 60, their most dangerous spell, and it is a unique peak. Monza's scoring is more spread out, with 25% of their goals in each of the 16-30, 31-45 and 61-75 minute bands, so they have no single peak window. Lazio have scored first in 4 of their 5 matches, while Monza have done so in 2 of 5. Lazio also score 62% of their goals in the second half, while Monza split their goals evenly between halves.
The season goal environment
Lazio's matches have been lower scoring, with 40% of their matches going over 2.5 goals across all venues, and 50% in their home matches. Monza's matches have been much higher scoring, with 80% going over 2.5 goals across all venues, and 66.67% in their away matches. Monza's away matches average 4.0 combined goals, while Lazio's home matches average 2.5. Lazio have failed to score in 0% of their matches, and Monza have also failed to score in 0%. Lazio's recent matches have been hotter than their season average, while Monza's have been colder.
How this match is likely to shape up
Lazio's defensive solidity at home, conceding just 1.0 goals per match, is the strongest single factor in this fixture. Monza's away defence, conceding 2.7 goals per match, is the weakest. The attacking numbers are level, so the match is likely to be shaped by whether Monza can find a way to score against a Lazio side that has kept three clean sheets in their last six matches. Lazio's second-half scoring tendency and Monza's high-scoring away matches suggest the second half could be more open. The market prices Lazio as clear favourites, and the data supports that read.