MLS 2026 ·
FC Dallas vs Seattle Sounders preview: Dallas host Seattle with the visitors carrying the sharper recent form
Dallas welcome Seattle to Toyota Stadium with the home side sitting six places higher in the table but the visitors unbeaten in their last nine matches. The clearest signal in the data is Seattle's away defence, which concedes just 1.1 goals per match on the road against a league average of 1.84.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
Seattle are the side with real availability problems, with three players ruled out through injury. Midfielder Paul Rothrock is the most significant absence, having scored 5 goals this season, which is 13% of the side's total in this competition. Forwards Pedro De la Vega and midfielder Nikola Petkovic are also unavailable. Dallas have no players listed as unavailable for this match.
The attacking threats
Dallas forward Petar Musa has been the standout scorer in this competition, with 19 goals in 24 matches, which is 37% of his team's total and places him second in the scoring chart. Logan Farrington adds 10 goals from 27 matches. For Seattle, Cristian Roldan leads the scoring with 5 goals, while Albert Rusnak has contributed 11 assists, the most creative output on either side.
Who arrives in better shape
Seattle carry the stronger recent form, unbeaten in their last nine matches and taking 14 points from their last six, with four wins and two draws. Dallas have 13 points from the same window, with four wins, one draw and one defeat. Both sides have played four matches at their relevant venue recently, with Dallas unbeaten in at least four home matches and Seattle unbeaten in at least four away matches.
The table and venue records
Dallas sit 6th with 47 points from 28 matches, while Seattle are 13th with 41 points. At home, Dallas have won 6, drawn 5 and lost 2 of 13 matches. Seattle's away record is 4 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses from 14 matches, with a goal difference of zero on the road.
Recent history favours Seattle
Across the last 10 meetings, Seattle have won 6, Dallas have won 1, and there have been 3 draws. The most recent meeting, in April 2026, finished 2-1 to Seattle. Dallas have not beaten Seattle in their last 5 meetings, and Seattle won the last meeting by a single goal.
Dallas edge the attacking numbers
Dallas score 1.9 goals per home match, which is level with the league average for a home side. Seattle score 1.1 goals per away match, marginally worse than the league average for an away side. The attack edge favours Dallas, but only marginally, with the home side's home scoring rate clearly higher than Seattle's away rate.
Seattle's away defence stands out
Seattle concede 1.1 goals per away match, which is clearly better than the league average of 1.84 for an away side. Dallas concede 1.5 goals per home match, level with the league average for a home side. The defence edge favours Seattle clearly, making their away solidity the most striking defensive number in this fixture.
Shot volume is closely matched
Seattle average 4.57 shots on target per match, marginally more than Dallas's 4.43. Seattle also see more of their shots blocked, at 2.82 per match against Dallas's 1.68. Dallas average 3.14 shots off target per match, while Seattle average 3.75.
Late goals are the shared pattern
Dallas score 27% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90, their most dangerous spell. Seattle score 34% of their goals in the same window, also their peak. Seattle are particularly second-half oriented, scoring 63% of their goals after the break, while Dallas are more balanced with 54% of their goals in the first half.
Two different goal environments
Dallas's matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals in 68% of cases, and at home that figure is 62%. Seattle's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 46% of cases, and away from home just 36%. Dallas have failed to score in 25% of matches this season, while Seattle have failed to score in 21%.
The total goals line
The market prices the total at 3.0 goals, with the over at 50%. Our model puts the probability of over 3.0 goals at 38%, which sits about 12 percentage points below the market's read. That is a meaningful gap, with our season-record view pointing to fewer goals than the market implies.
What to expect
Dallas bring the stronger home attack and the higher table position, but Seattle's away defence is the clearest edge in this match. Seattle's recent form is also superior, unbeaten in nine, while Dallas have been solid but less convincing at home. The total goals line looks high relative to Seattle's away record, and a tighter, lower-scoring match than the market expects is the most likely shape.