Premier League 26/27 · Round 7 ·
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace preview: Brighton host Crystal Palace with home form the clear divide
Brighton arrive at the American Express Community Stadium third in the table and unbeaten at home this season, while Crystal Palace have struggled on the road. The single most important finding is the gap in home and away scoring: Brighton average 2.7 goals per home match against Palace's 1.0 away.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Injury list hits Brighton harder
Brighton are missing eight players, including midfielder Jack Hinshelwood, who has scored 2 goals, 11% of the side's goals in this competition. The unavailable list also includes Kaoru Mitoma, Mats Wieffer, Evan Ferguson, Femi Azeez, Yankuba Minteh, Stefanos Tzimas and Zadok Yohanna. Crystal Palace have only defender Chadi Riad out with an injury. The home side's absences remove a meaningful share of their attacking depth, while Palace's list is far shorter.
Gross and Mitchell lead the scoring
Pascal Gross is Brighton's top scorer with 3 goals and also has 4 assists, making him the central creative figure. Tyrick Mitchell leads Crystal Palace with 2 goals, a 22% share of their total. Gross ranks sixth in the scoring chart, while Mitchell sits fifteenth. Brighton's Malick Yalcouye has 2 goals as well, giving the home side two players with multiple goals. Palace's next scorers have only one each, so their attack is thinner.
Brighton's recent run is far stronger
Brighton have taken 13 points from their last six matches, with four wins, one draw and one loss. Crystal Palace have 7 points from the same span, with two wins, one draw and three losses. Brighton are unbeaten in their last five matches, while Palace have won only one of their last four away matches. Brighton have also kept three clean sheets in their last six, compared to three for Palace, but the home side's scoring edge is the clearer signal.
Brighton sit nine places higher
Brighton are third with 13 points, while Crystal Palace are twelfth with 7 points. Brighton's home record is two wins and one draw from three matches, with a goal difference of plus 7. Palace's away record is one win, one draw and one loss, with a goal difference of minus 1. The home side's position and venue record both point clearly in their favour.
Recent meetings favour Palace
Across the last 10 meetings, Crystal Palace have won 3 times, Brighton 2, with 5 draws. The goals are level at 11 each. At this ground, in the 5 meetings, Brighton have won 2, Palace 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was a 1-0 Palace win at Brighton in February 2026. The history is balanced overall, but Palace have had the edge in the last five meetings, winning three of them.
Brighton's home attack is far sharper
Brighton average 2.7 goals per home match, which is better than the league average for a home side at home, a large edge. Crystal Palace average 1.0 goals per away match, worse than the league average for an away side on the road, though only marginally. The attack edge favours Brighton, and it is large. Brighton's home scoring is also above their own season average of 3.0 across all venues, while Palace's away scoring is below their season average of 1.5.
Brighton's home defence is far tighter
Brighton concede 0.3 goals per home match, which is better than the league average conceded by a home side at home, a large edge. Crystal Palace concede 1.3 goals per away match, better than the league average conceded by an away side on the road, but only marginally. The defence edge favours Brighton, and it is large. Brighton have kept two clean sheets in three home matches, while Palace have one in three away matches.
Brighton test the keeper more often
Brighton average 5.33 shots on target per match, while Crystal Palace average 4.17. Brighton also see more of their shots blocked, at 3.67 per match against Palace's 2.0. The home side's higher shot volume on target is the more meaningful gap, but Palace's lower blocked rate suggests they get cleaner looks when they do shoot.
Brighton peak before half-time, Palace after
Brighton score 28% of their goals between minutes 31-45, their most dangerous spell. Crystal Palace score 33% of their goals between minutes 31-45 and another 33% between 46-60, so they are equally dangerous across those two windows. Brighton concede 60% of their goals in the opening 15 minutes, against 6% of the goals they score in that window. Palace concede 25% of their goals in each of the 31-45 and 46-60 windows, against 33% and 33% of the goals they score in those windows respectively.
Both sides trend toward over 2.5
Brighton's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of cases this season, and Crystal Palace's in 66.67% as well. Brighton's first-half over 1.5 rate is 50%, and their second-half rate is 50%. Palace's first-half over 1.5 rate is 50%, and their second-half rate is 50%. The two teams produce similar goal environments, with both sitting at two-thirds over 2.5 goals.
Brighton's home edge is the decisive factor
Brighton's home attack and defence both carry a large edge over Crystal Palace's away figures. The home side's recent form and table position reinforce that gap. Palace's away scoring has been marginal, and their away defence only marginally better than the league average. The market prices Brighton as the clear favourite, and the stats support a home win, though Palace's recent head-to-head edge adds a note of caution.