Serie A 26/27 · Round 6 ·
Atalanta BC vs Venezia FC preview: Atalanta host Venezia with both sides desperate for points
Atalanta welcome Venezia to the New Balance Arena with the home side's season stalling after three straight league defeats. The clearest signal in the data is Venezia's away defence, which concedes 2.5 goals per match on the road and has lost every league fixture this season.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Injury lists hit both squads
Atalanta are without five players, including forward Giacomo Raspadori, who has scored 1 goal, 20% of the side's goals in this competition. Nikola Krstovic is the leading available scorer for the hosts. Venezia have seven players unavailable, and the most significant absence is midfielder Gianluca Busio, who has provided 2 assists this season. Both sides are missing defenders and midfielders, but neither is without a recognised scorer.
Scoring threats to watch
Atalanta's attack has been spread across three players, with Giacomo Raspadori, Nikola Krstovic and Lazar Samardzic each scoring once in the league this season. Raspadori is unavailable, so Krstovic and Samardzic carry the home threat. Venezia's goals have also come from three players, with Richie Sagrado, John Yeboah and Akor Adams each scoring once. Sagrado is a defender, which underlines how little Venezia's forwards have produced.
Form favours the hosts
Atalanta have taken 6 points from their last five league matches, with a record of 2 wins and 3 losses. Venezia have lost all five of their league matches this season, taking 0 points. Atalanta's recent results show three straight defeats, but their home form is better, with 3 wins and 1 draw in their last five at this venue. Venezia have not won in at least 5 away matches.
Table gap is already wide
Atalanta sit 11th with 6 points from 5 matches, while Venezia are 20th with 0 points. At home, Atalanta have won 2 and lost 1 of their 3 matches, with a goal difference of +1. Venezia have lost both away matches, with a goal difference of -3. The gap in points is six, but Venezia's failure to register a single point makes the table position even more stark.
History points to Atalanta
Across 10 meetings since 2001, Atalanta have won 6, Venezia have won 2, and there have been 2 draws. Atalanta have scored 13 goals to Venezia's 4. In the 5 meetings at this ground, Atalanta have won 3 and drawn 2, with Venezia yet to score a goal at the New Balance Arena. The most recent meeting, in March 2025, ended 0-0.
Atalanta hold a marginal edge
Atalanta score 1.3 goals per home match, while Venezia manage 1.0 per away match. Atalanta's home attack is marginally worse than the league average for a home side, while Venezia's away attack is clearly worse than the league average for an away side. The attack edge favours Atalanta, but only marginally.
Venezia's away defence is a problem
Atalanta concede 1.0 goals per home match, which is clearly better than the league average for a home side. Venezia concede 2.5 goals per away match, which is worse than the league average for an away side by a large margin. The defence edge favours Atalanta, and it is large. Venezia have kept no clean sheets away from home this season.
Venezia shoot more but concede more
Venezia average 4.2 shots on target per match, compared to Atalanta's 3.2. Venezia also average 6.2 shots off target per match, while Atalanta average 4.8. Both sides average 3.2 blocked shots per match. Venezia's higher shot volume has not translated into goals, with only 4 scored all season.
Both sides leak late goals
Atalanta's scoring is spread evenly, with 20% of their goals in each of five different 15-minute bands. Venezia score 50% of their goals in the 61-75 minute window. Defensively, Atalanta concede 43% of their goals in the 76-90 minute band, while Venezia concede 31% in the same period. Both sides are vulnerable late in matches.
Goals expected but not guaranteed
Atalanta's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of cases this season, while Venezia's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 50% of cases. Atalanta have failed to score in 0% of home matches, while Venezia have failed to score in 50% of away matches. Venezia's away matches average 3.5 combined goals, compared to Atalanta's 2.33 at home.
Atalanta should control the match
Atalanta's home form and Venezia's away struggles point to a home win. The market prices Atalanta at 61% to win, with Venezia at 17%. Atalanta's defence is clearly better, and Venezia's away attack is clearly worse than the league average. The most likely outcome is an Atalanta victory, with Venezia's late-game vulnerability a factor.