Serie A 26/27 · Round 7 ·
AC Milan vs Atalanta BC preview: Milan host Atalanta in a Lombardy derby with contrasting home and away records
Milan arrive at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza unbeaten in Serie A this season and with a perfect home record, while Atalanta have lost both of their away matches. The single most important finding is Milan's defence at home, where they have conceded no goals across 2 home matches, against an Atalanta attack that has scored just once on the road.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is unavailable
Milan are missing midfielder Alexis Saelemaekers to injury, but none of their leading scorers or creators are on the unavailable list. Atalanta have four players out, all with injury: defenders Isak Hien and Odilon Kossounou, forward Kamaldeen Sulemana and goalkeeper Thomas Pompei. None of Atalanta's top scorers are among the absentees, so their main attacking options remain available.
Players carrying the attack
Milan's attack has been led by midfielders Diego Moreira and Adrien Rabiot, who each have 3 goals in this competition this season, with Moreira playing 4 matches and Rabiot 6. Moreira's 3 goals represent 27% of Milan's goals, as do Rabiot's. Atalanta's main threat is forward Nikola Krstovic, who has 3 goals in 6 matches and accounts for 38% of their goals. Both Moreira and Krstovic sit sixth in the scoring chart, level with 12 other players on 3 goals.
Recent form
Milan are in better form, taking 12 points from their last six league matches to Atalanta's 9. Milan's last six read 3 wins, 3 draws and no defeats, while Atalanta have 3 wins and 3 losses. Milan drew their most recent match, while Atalanta won theirs. Milan have had seven days since their last match, one more than Atalanta's six.
League positions and venue records
Milan sit 5th with 12 points, while Atalanta are 10th with 9 points. Milan have won both of their home matches this season, with a home goal difference of 5. Atalanta have lost both of their away matches, with an away goal difference of -3.
Head to head
Across the last 10 meetings, Atalanta have won 5 times, Milan 2, with 3 draws. The goal difference is 14-13 in favour of Atalanta. In the 6 meetings at this ground, Atalanta have won 3, Milan 2, with 1 draw. The most recent meeting was in May 2026, when Atalanta won 3-2 at Milan.
Attacking threat
Milan hold a large attacking edge. At home they score 2.5 goals per match across 2 home matches, well above the league average of 1.55 for a home side. Atalanta score just 0.5 goals per match away from home across 2 away matches, well below the league average of 1.32 for an away side.
Defensive solidity
Milan hold a large defensive edge. At home they have conceded 0.0 goals per match across 2 home matches, far better than the league average of 1.32 conceded by a home side. Atalanta concede 2.0 goals per match away from home across 2 away matches, clearly worse than the league average of 1.55 conceded by an away side.
Shots on target and blocked shots
Milan average 4.67 shots on target per match, slightly more than Atalanta's 4.5. Atalanta see more of their shots blocked, averaging 3.83 blocked shots per match to Milan's 2.67. Milan also hold more possession, at 59.33% compared to Atalanta's 46.0%.
When goals arrive
Milan are most dangerous between minutes 61 and 75, scoring 82% of their goals in that window. Atalanta are most dangerous in the opening 15 minutes, scoring 38% of their goals there. Atalanta are also most vulnerable late, conceding 38% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90, against 13% of the goals they score in that window.
Goal environments
Milan's matches have been back-loaded: 100% of their matches have gone over 1.5 goals in the second half, while only 16.67% have gone over 1.5 goals in the first half. Atalanta's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of cases, compared to 50% for Milan. Milan's home matches have averaged 2.5 combined goals, the same as Atalanta's away matches.
What to expect
Milan's home defence is the strongest single factor, having conceded no goals at home this season. Atalanta's away attack has been weak, scoring just once in two away matches. Milan's attack is also stronger at home, while Atalanta's defence has been vulnerable away. The market prices Milan as the favourite, with a 52% implied probability of a home win.