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Saint Louis vs LA Galaxy — MLS 2026

SUN, OCT 11Energizer Park
Saint Louis
6 – 2Half-time 5 – 1Full time
LA Galaxy
Saint Louis: C. Holse
2', 7', 21'
Saint Louis: R. Navarro
45' (Pen)
Saint Louis: L. MacNaughton
45+7'
Saint Louis: R. Navarro
53'
32'
LA Galaxy: R. Taylor
71'
LA Galaxy: J. Klauss

Pre-match analysis, published Oct 11, 2026, 7:05 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.

Standings & Form · MLS 2026

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Saint Louis sit 5th with 47 points, a comfortable gap over LA Galaxy in 18th on 36. At home Saint Louis have won 8 of 13 matches and hold a +11 goal difference, while LA Galaxy have managed 4 wins from 14 away trips with a -7 away goal difference.

Saint Louis
Last 6 · all comps
LA Galaxy
STL48%Win Rate32%LA
STL22%Loss Rate36%LA

Head-to-Head · LAST 10 MEETINGS

2
LA wins
4
draws
4
STL wins

Saint Louis have had the better of the 10 meetings, winning 4 to LA Galaxy's 2 with 4 draws, and the goal count is nearly level at 20-19. The most recent meeting went Saint Louis's way, 3-1 at LA Galaxy in July, and both teams scored in 80% of these fixtures.

Scoring Profile

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Attack

Saint Louis hold a marginal attacking edge, scoring 2.2 goals per home match against LA Galaxy's 1.4 away, which is exactly the league average for a visiting side. Saint Louis are slightly above the league's home scoring norm, while LA Galaxy are level with it.

All venues
Home/AwaySTL home · LA away

Goals Scored · Season

STL1.81.3LA
STL2.21.4LA

Failed to Score · Season

STL15%14%LA
STL8%14%LA

Attacking Share · Season

STL57%46%LA
STL62%42%LA

Goals Scored · Last 5

STL3.01.8LA
STL2.61.2LA

Failed to Score · Last 5

STL0%20%LA
STL0%40%LA

Goals & Timing

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

Saint Louis are most dangerous just before half-time, scoring 23% of their goals in the 31-45 minute window, while LA Galaxy peak late with 30% of their goals after the 76th minute. Saint Louis are also most vulnerable late, conceding 31% of their goals in the same 76-90 window, which sets up a potentially decisive final stretch.

Saint LouisLA Galaxy
10%
17%
23%
19%
13%
19%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
22%
11%
14%
16%
8%
30%
0-1516-3031-4546-6061-7576-90
STL52%1st Half Lead %25%LA
STL19%2nd Half Lead %39%LA

Goal Lines · Season 2026

Pre-match · Oct 11, 2026

STL ■LA ■· Share of each team's matches over the line

Saint Louis's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 69% of cases this season, and LA Galaxy's away matches in 71%, so the venue split points clearly toward goals. Across all venues, Saint Louis sit at 56% over 2.5 and LA Galaxy at 64%, with both sides trending hotter in their last five.

STL100%Over 0.596%LA
STL89%Over 1.589%LA
STL56%Over 2.564%LA
STL41%Over 3.529%LA
STL19%Over 4.511%LA
STL7%Over 5.50%LA
3.11Combined Goals / G · FT · Season2.89

Betting Angles

Our Forecast · Total goals 3.5

Where we differ from the bookmaker
under 3.5 goals+2.7
Model 55% · bookmaker 53%Pts of edge
Chance of over 3.5 goals
Our model, over 3.5 goals
45%
Bookmaker, over 3.5 goals
47%

The total goals market prices over 3.5 goals at 47%, while our model puts the same outcome at 44.5%. That leaves our read about 2.7 percentage points below the market's, a marginal difference that offers no clear signal either way.

Chance of over · line by lineEdge · pts
  • Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 97%, edge plus 3.3 points
  • Over 1.5 goals: our model 89%, bookmaker correct-score price 87%, edge plus 2.1 points
  • Over 2.5 goals: our model 70%, bookmaker correct-score price 68%, edge plus 2.0 points
  • Over 3.5 goals: our model 45%, bookmaker correct-score price 47%, edge minus 2.7 points
  • Over 4.5 goals: our model 23%, bookmaker correct-score price 28%, edge minus 5.6 points

Statistical insight only · not advice

Match Trends · Data-provider insights

  1. Saint Louis seem to be in a good form. They won 3 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.

  2. In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1.4 cards per match, while LA Galaxy have averaged 1 card.

  3. In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have received an average of 1.2 cards in the first half per match, while LA Galaxy have averaged 0.2 cards.

  4. In their last 5 MLS matches, Saint Louis have been awarded an average of 3.8 corners per match, while LA Galaxy have averaged 4.8 corners.

  5. In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Saint Louis conceded on average 1 goals per match while LA Galaxy conceded on average 1.6 goals per match.

  6. Saint Louis conceded 3 less goals than LA Galaxy in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.

  7. Chances are good to see a goal from Saint Louis within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.

  8. In the last 20 months, Saint Louis and LA Galaxy have faced each other 3 times, with Saint Louis winning 2 times.

About The Match

Saint Louis arrive as the clear market favourite and the stronger side on almost every measure, but the totals market is quietly pointing the other way. Saint Louis have taken 14 points from their last six league matches to LA Galaxy's 10, and they sit 5th to the visitors' 18th. The key uncertainty is whether LA Galaxy's late-match scoring habit, 30% of their goals after the 76th minute, can trouble a Saint Louis defence that has conceded 72% of its goals after half-time.