New York vs Saint Louis — MLS 2026
New York: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
CARDSSaint Louis: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 30, 2026, 6:10 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page · Read the match report.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
Saint Louis sit 8th with 44 points, far clear of 17th-placed New York on 33, and the away side's 4 wins and 5 draws from 13 road matches show they are not reliant on home form. New York's home record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses is barely better than their away split, so the table gap reflects a genuine quality difference rather than a venue illusion.
New York
Saint LouisScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
Attack
Saint Louis's away attack is modest at 1.3 goals per away match, only marginally better than New York's 1.5 at home, so neither side carries a clear scoring edge in this venue split. New York's recent output is far weaker, just 0.6 goals per match across their last five, while Saint Louis have averaged 3.0 in theirs.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York concede 1.9 goals per home match, the higher of the two, while Saint Louis allow 1.5 on the road, giving the away side the more solid defensive profile for this fixture. New York's recent home record is worse still, conceding 1.8 per match across their last five at this venue.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
New York are most dangerous late, scoring 24% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Saint Louis peak earlier with 24% in the 31-45 minute band. Both sides are vulnerable after the break: New York concede 23% of their goals in the 46-60 window and Saint Louis 31% in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
Across the whole season, New York's home matches go over 2.5 goals 50% of the time, while Saint Louis's away matches do so only 38.5% of the time, pointing to a moderate-scoring fixture. Saint Louis's matches are heavily back-loaded, with 73% of their games producing over 1.5 second-half goals against 35% in the first half.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 59%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The total goals market prices over 3.25 goals at 50%, while our model puts the same line at 41%. That leaves our read about 9 percentage points below the market's, a modest gap that suggests our season record sees slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge plus 3.7 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 88%, bookmaker correct-score price 86%, edge plus 2.3 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 44%, bookmaker correct-score price 66%, edge minus 22.0 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 40%, bookmaker correct-score price 45%, edge minus 4.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 21%, bookmaker correct-score price 26%, edge minus 5.6 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 1.6 cards per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have been awarded an average of 3.4 corners per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 4.4 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, New York conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Saint Louis conceded on average 1.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1 card.
Chances are good to see a goal from Saint Louis within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
Saint Louis sit 8th with 44 points, far clear of 17th-placed New York on 33, and the away side's 4 wins and 5 draws from 13 road matches show they are not reliant on home form. New York's home record of 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses is barely better than their away split, so the table gap reflects a genuine quality difference rather than a venue illusion.
New YorkSaint LouisHead-to-Head · LAST 3 MEETINGS
The three meetings between these clubs are evenly split at one win each and one draw, with New York holding a slight edge on total goals at 5-4. The most recent meeting, outside this competition, went to New York by a 3-1 scoreline, but with only three prior matches there is no reliable pattern to lean on.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
Attack
Saint Louis's away attack is modest at 1.3 goals per away match, only marginally better than New York's 1.5 at home, so neither side carries a clear scoring edge in this venue split. New York's recent output is far weaker, just 0.6 goals per match across their last five, while Saint Louis have averaged 3.0 in theirs.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Defence
New York concede 1.9 goals per home match, the higher of the two, while Saint Louis allow 1.5 on the road, giving the away side the more solid defensive profile for this fixture. New York's recent home record is worse still, conceding 1.8 per match across their last five at this venue.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
New York are most dangerous late, scoring 24% of their goals in the 76-90 minute window, while Saint Louis peak earlier with 24% in the 31-45 minute band. Both sides are vulnerable after the break: New York concede 23% of their goals in the 46-60 window and Saint Louis 31% in the final 15 minutes.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 30, 2026
Across the whole season, New York's home matches go over 2.5 goals 50% of the time, while Saint Louis's away matches do so only 38.5% of the time, pointing to a moderate-scoring fixture. Saint Louis's matches are heavily back-loaded, with 73% of their games producing over 1.5 second-half goals against 35% in the first half.
Betting Angles
Our Forecast · Total goals 3.25
We give the under 59%; the bookmaker gives it 50%.
The total goals market prices over 3.25 goals at 50%, while our model puts the same line at 41%. That leaves our read about 9 percentage points below the market's, a modest gap that suggests our season record sees slightly fewer goals than the odds imply.
- Over 0.5 goals: our model 100%, bookmaker correct-score price 96%, edge plus 3.7 points
- Over 1.5 goals: our model 88%, bookmaker correct-score price 86%, edge plus 2.3 points
- Over 2.5 goals: our model 44%, bookmaker correct-score price 66%, edge minus 22.0 points
- Over 3.5 goals: our model 40%, bookmaker correct-score price 45%, edge minus 4.9 points
- Over 4.5 goals: our model 21%, bookmaker correct-score price 26%, edge minus 5.6 points
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker figures implied from its odds · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Data-provider insights
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 1.6 cards per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1.4 cards.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have been awarded an average of 3.4 corners per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 4.4 corners.
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, New York conceded on average 0.6 goals per match while Saint Louis conceded on average 1.6 goals per match.
In their last 5 MLS matches, New York have received an average of 1 card in the first half per match, while Saint Louis have averaged 1 card.
Chances are good to see a goal from Saint Louis within the first half. They have averaged 0.8 goals before halftime in the MLS this season.
About The Match
Saint Louis arrive as the market's clear favourite, priced at 48% to win, and their form supports that: 14 points from the last six league matches against New York's 8. The sharper contrast is in how each side scores, with Saint Louis averaging 3.0 goals per match across their last five while New York manage just 0.6, though New York's home record is less dire than that recent run suggests. The key uncertainty is whether Saint Louis's away scoring, a modest 1.3 per match this season, can punish a New York side that has kept three clean sheets in its last six.