UEFA Champions League 26/27 · Round 2 ·
Villarreal CF vs SSC Napoli preview: Villarreal host Napoli with both sides chasing a first win
Villarreal welcome Napoli to Estadio de la Ceramica with both teams still looking for their first points of the Champions League campaign. The market prices the home side as a narrow favourite, but the clearest signal is a total goals line set at 3.0 with a lean to the under.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Injury lists hit both squads
Villarreal are without forward Tajon Buchanan through injury and defender Alex Freeman, who is unavailable. Napoli's list is far longer, with eight players ruled out, including midfielders Frank Anguissa, Scott Mctominay, Jens-Lys Cajuste, Antonio Vergara and Costantino Favasuli, defenders Mathias Olivera and Alessandro Buongiorno, and forward Alisson Santos. None of Villarreal's absentees are among their top scorers, so their attacking threat is intact. Napoli's absences do not remove any of their leading scorers either, but the sheer volume of missing midfielders strips depth from their squad.
Mourino carries Villarreal's scoring threat
Villarreal's only goal threat in this competition so far is defender Santiago Mourino, who has scored 1 goal in 1 match, accounting for 50% of the team's goals. Napoli have no player with a goal in this competition yet, so their attacking burden falls on players yet to register. Mourino is available for this match and is the clear focal point for the home side's attack. Napoli will need to find a scorer from elsewhere if they are to break their duck.
Both teams arrive off opening defeats
Villarreal lost their only league match so far, leaving them 21st in the form table with 0 points from their last 1 match. Napoli are 27th in the form table, also with 0 points from their last 1 match. In their last six matches in all competitions, Villarreal have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 4, while Napoli have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3. Napoli are unbeaten in their last 3 matches, a run that includes a 3-0 win over Frosinone. Villarreal have lost 3 of their last 5 matches.
Both sides sit near the bottom
Villarreal are 21st in the table with 0 points from 1 match played, while Napoli are 27th with 0 points from 1 match. Villarreal have yet to play at home this season, so their home record is empty. Napoli have played 1 home match and lost it, leaving them with 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss at home. Neither side has a venue record to lean on for this fixture, with Villarreal's away record showing 1 loss and Napoli's home record showing 1 loss.
Recent meetings favour Villarreal
Across 7 meetings from 2011 to 2022, Villarreal have won 3, Napoli have won 2, and there have been 2 draws. The goal difference is 8-7 in Napoli's favour. The most recent meeting was in 2022, when Villarreal won 3-2, but that match was outside this competition. Only 2 of the 7 meetings were in the same competition as this fixture. The average total goals across all meetings is 2.14, with both teams scoring in 42.9% of them.
Villarreal hold the edge going forward
Villarreal average 2.0 goals per match this season, level with the league average of 1.92. Napoli average 0.0 goals per match, a large gap below the league average. Villarreal's attack is the stronger of the two, with a clear edge over Napoli's. In their last five matches, Villarreal have averaged 1.8 goals scored per match, while Napoli have averaged 1.4. Villarreal's home form is stronger, averaging 2.4 goals per match at home in their last five.
Napoli's defence looks the tighter
Villarreal concede 3.0 goals per match, worse than the league average of 1.92. Napoli concede 1.0 goals per match, better than the league average. Napoli hold a clear defensive edge over Villarreal. In their last five matches, Villarreal have conceded 1.6 goals per match, while Napoli have conceded 1.0. Napoli's away form is particularly solid, conceding just 0.8 goals per match in their last five away matches.
Villarreal test the keeper more often
Villarreal average 8.0 shots on target per match, compared to Napoli's 3.0. Villarreal also see more of their shots blocked, averaging 3.0 blocked shots per match to Napoli's 2.0. Villarreal's higher shot volume on target suggests they are more likely to create clear chances. Napoli's lower shot output reflects a more conservative attacking approach.
Villarreal strike late, Napoli vulnerable late
Villarreal score most of their goals late, with 50% of their goals coming in the 61-75 minute window and 50% in the 76-90 minute window. Napoli have yet to score this season, so their scoring distribution is empty. Napoli concede 100% of their goals in the 61-75 minute window, making them vulnerable in that period. Villarreal's late scoring threat could exploit Napoli's late defensive weakness.
Villarreal matches trend high, Napoli low
Villarreal's matches this season have all gone over 2.5 goals, with 100% of their matches hitting that mark. Napoli's matches have all stayed under 2.5 goals, with 0% going over. Villarreal's matches average 5.0 combined goals per match, while Napoli's average 1.0. Villarreal's home matches in their last five have averaged 3.8 combined goals, while Napoli's away matches have averaged 2.4. The market prices the total at 3.0 with a lean to the under.
A tight match with late drama possible
Villarreal's stronger attack and higher shot volume give them the edge, but Napoli's tighter defence and solid away form keep this close. The market prices Villarreal as a narrow favourite, with a 43% implied probability of a home win. Napoli's defensive resilience suggests they can frustrate Villarreal, but their lack of goals is a concern. The total goals line of 3.0 with a lean to the under reflects the contrasting styles. Expect a match where Villarreal push for a late winner, but Napoli's organisation could earn them a point.