UEFA Europa League 26/27 · Round 2 ·
SL Benfica vs Celtic Glasgow preview: SL Benfica host Celtic in a lopsided European meeting
SL Benfica welcome Celtic to the Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica with the market pricing the home side as a heavy favourite, giving them a 78% chance of winning the match. The clearest signal in the data is the contrast in defensive solidity, with Benfica yet to concede this season while Celtic shipped three goals in their only league match.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who carries each attack
SL Benfica's early scoring has been shared evenly between Jakub Kaminski and Dodi Lukebakio, each with one goal from one match and each accounting for 50% of the team's goals in this competition. Celtic's only goal so far has come from Mika Baur, who has scored all of their goals this season. The sample is tiny, but the distribution is telling: Benfica have two forwards already on the scoresheet, while Celtic's lone scorer is a midfielder.
Recent form and momentum
SL Benfica arrive in far better shape, having won their only league match this season and five of their last six in all competitions. Celtic have lost their only league match and three of their last six overall. Benfica have also won their last four home matches, scoring ten goals and conceding three in that run. Celtic's away form is mixed, with three wins and two losses in their last five on the road.
Table positions and venue records
SL Benfica sit 7th with 3 points from one match, while Celtic are 28th with 0 points from one match. Benfica have yet to play at home this season, so their home record is blank. Celtic have played one home match and lost it, conceding three goals. The gap in points is small because the season is so young, but the positions reflect the contrasting starts.
History between the clubs
Across seven meetings from 2006 to 2012, SL Benfica have won four, Celtic two, with one draw. The goal totals are 9 for Benfica and 6 for Celtic. The most recent meeting was in 2012, a 2-1 Benfica win, and none of these meetings were in this competition. The history is old and mixed, so it offers little guidance for this fixture.
Attacking threat compared
SL Benfica average 2.0 goals per match overall, which is better than the league average of 1.31 and a large edge. Celtic average 1.0 goals per match, worse than the league average and a marginal deficit. Benfica's recent home scoring is even stronger at 2.4 goals per match. The attacking edge clearly belongs to the home side.
Defensive solidity compared
SL Benfica have conceded 0.0 goals per match this season, a large improvement on the league average of 1.31. Celtic have conceded 3.0 goals per match, a large deterioration on that same average. Benfica's defensive edge is substantial. Celtic's recent away record shows 1.6 goals conceded per match, which is still worse than Benfica's home rate of 1.0.
Shots on target and blocked
SL Benfica average 6.71 shots on target per match, while Celtic manage 4.0. Benfica also see fewer of their shots blocked, at 2.43 per match compared to Celtic's 7.0. Celtic's higher blocked-shot count suggests their attempts are being closed down more effectively. Benfica work the opposing goalkeeper harder and get more shots through.
When goals arrive
SL Benfica's scoring is spread across the second half and late windows, with 19% of their goals coming in each of the 31-45, 46-60, and 76-90 minute bands. Celtic's only goal this season came in the 31-45 minute window. Benfica also concede heavily late, with 33% of goals against in the 76-90 window and 33% in the 31-45 window.
Season goal environment
SL Benfica's matches have gone over 1.5 goals in 100% of cases this season, but never over 2.5. Celtic's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 100% of cases, and over 3.5 in 100% as well. The contrast is stark: Benfica's matches are low-scoring, while Celtic's have been high-scoring. Benfica's first-half over 1.5 rate is 0%, while Celtic's is 100%.
What to expect
The market sees this as a one-sided match, with SL Benfica heavily favoured. Benfica's defensive solidity and stronger recent form support that view, while Celtic's leaky defence and poor start to the season are major concerns. The total goals market is priced close to even at 3.25, reflecting the tension between Benfica's low-scoring matches and Celtic's high-scoring ones. Expect Benfica to control the match and create more chances, but the goal count is uncertain.