UEFA Champions League 26/27 · Round 3 ·
Liverpool FC vs Villarreal CF preview: Liverpool host Villarreal with both sides chasing early momentum
Liverpool welcome Villarreal to Anfield with the market pricing the home side as strong favourites. The clearest early signal is the defensive split: Liverpool have conceded just once at home this season while Villarreal have shipped three goals in their single away match.
By 10xSharp · Published
Who is missing for each side
Liverpool are without three players, including forward Hugo Ekitike, who is out with an injury. Defenders Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are also unavailable through injury. Villarreal have their own absences, with forwards Nicolas Pepe and Tajon Buchanan ruled out through injury, while defender Alex Freeman is unavailable. None of the missing players feature among either side's top three scorers this season, so the attacking output of both teams is largely unaffected.
The players carrying the attacks
Bradley Barcola has been Liverpool's main threat, scoring 3 goals in 2 matches, which accounts for 38% of the team's goals in this competition. Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai have each added one goal. For Villarreal, defender Santiago Mourino leads the way with 2 goals in 2 matches, a 40% share of the team's total. Tani Oluwaseyi and Georges Mikautadze have each scored once, giving the away side a more spread attacking contribution.
Who arrives in better shape
Liverpool have won both of their league matches so far, collecting 6 points and sitting 5th in the form table. Villarreal have taken 3 points from their two matches, with one win and one defeat, placing them 14th in the form table. In their last six matches in all competitions, Liverpool have won four, drawn one and lost one, while Villarreal have won three, drawn one and lost two. Both sides played three days ago, so there is no rest advantage for either team.
Where the two sides sit
Liverpool are 5th with 6 points from their two matches, while Villarreal are 14th with 3 points. At home, Liverpool have won their only match, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Villarreal have lost their only away match, scoring 2 but conceding 3. The home side's perfect start gives them a clear early edge in the table, though the sample is only two matches for each team.
What history says
Across their last five meetings, Liverpool have won three times, Villarreal once, with one draw. The goal difference in those matches is 8-3 in Liverpool's favour. Their most recent meeting came in 2022, when Liverpool won 3-2 at Villarreal. The average total goals across those five matches is 2.2, and both teams scored in only 20% of them.
How dangerous each side is
Liverpool have scored 2 goals in their single home match, which is marginally worse than the league average for a home side at home. Villarreal have scored 2 goals in their one away match, marginally better than the league average for an away side on the road. The attack edge favours Villarreal, and it is a clear one, driven by their away output relative to the league baseline. Across the whole season, Liverpool average 4 goals per match compared to Villarreal's 2.5.
Who is more solid at the back
Liverpool have conceded just 1 goal in their single home match, which is clearly better than the league average for a home side. Villarreal have conceded 3 goals in their one away match, marginally worse than the league average for an away side. The defence edge favours Liverpool, and it is a large one. Across the whole season, both teams have conceded 2 goals per match on average.
Who works the goalkeeper harder
Liverpool average 8 shots on target per match, compared to Villarreal's 6. Liverpool also see more of their shots blocked, with 5.5 blocked per match against Villarreal's 5.0. The home side's higher volume of shots on target suggests they are more likely to test the opposing goalkeeper, though the sample is only two matches for each team.
When the goals tend to come
Liverpool's most dangerous spell is spread across four windows: minutes 16-30, 31-45, 46-60 and 61-75, with 25% of their goals in each. Villarreal are equally dangerous in minutes 16-30 and 76-90, scoring 40% of their goals in each of those windows. Liverpool have scored first once in their two matches, while Villarreal have yet to score first this season.
The goal environment this season
All of Liverpool's matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals, and all have also gone over 1.5 goals in the first half. Villarreal's matches have also all gone over 2.5 goals, and all have gone over 3.5 goals. Liverpool's matches have been front-loaded, with a half tempo lean of 50% towards the first half, while Villarreal's matches have been evenly split between the two halves.
How this match is likely to shape up
Liverpool's defensive solidity at home is the clearest signal, with just one goal conceded in their single home match. Villarreal's away defence has been more porous, conceding three goals in their one away match. The market prices Liverpool as strong favourites, and their early season form supports that. Expect Liverpool to control the match, with Villarreal looking to exploit the home side's occasional defensive lapses.