Ligue 1 26/27 · Round 7 ·
Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre preview: Le Havre host Auxerre with both sides chasing a first away point
Le Havre welcome Auxerre to Stade Oceane with both clubs sitting in the bottom three and neither yet to win away from home. The single most important finding is the contrast in defensive solidity: Le Havre concede just 1.0 goals per home match while Auxerre concede 4.0 per away match, a gap that shapes everything else about this fixture.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Who is missing
Le Havre are without four players, all through injury: goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi, forward Felix Mambimbi, and defenders Timothee Pembele and Stephan Zagadou. None of those absentees features among their top scorers, so their attacking options remain intact. Auxerre have six players unavailable, also all through injury: midfielders Assane Diousse and Rayan Mandengue, plus defenders Bryan Okoh, Marvin Senaya, Telli Siwe and Sekou Fofana. Mandengue is the one key absence, as he has contributed one assist this season and is part of their creative setup.
Who carries the attack
Cameron Archer is the standout attacking threat for Auxerre, with 4 goals in 4 matches this season, a return that makes him the league's joint top scorer. His 50% share of Auxerre's goals is the highest of any player on either side. For Le Havre, Ally Samatta leads the way with 2 goals in 6 matches, exactly half of their total output. Rayan Fofana and Josh Maja have each added one goal, while Sota Nakamura has the only assist for the home side.
Recent results
Auxerre arrive in better form, taking 6 points from their last six matches compared with 2 for Le Havre. Le Havre have not won in six, with two draws and four defeats, while Auxerre have won twice but lost four times in the same window. Both teams lost their most recent match, Le Havre 1-0 at Lille and Auxerre 4-1 at Stade Rennais. Le Havre have also failed to score in three of their last six, while Auxerre have scored in every one of theirs.
Table position
Auxerre sit 16th with 6 points, two places and four points above Le Havre, who are 18th with 2 points. The home side's record at Stade Oceane is 0 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with a goal difference of -2. Auxerre's away record is even worse: 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses, with a goal difference of -8. Neither side has won a single away match this season, which makes Le Havre's home struggles the more surprising of the two.
Past meetings
Across 10 meetings since 2019, Le Havre have won 5, Auxerre have won 2, and there have been 3 draws. The most recent meeting, in April this year, ended 1-1 at this ground. In the 5 meetings at Stade Oceane, Le Havre have won 2, Auxerre have won 1, and there have been 2 draws. The average total goals across all 10 meetings is 2.5, and both teams scored in 70% of them.
Attacking threat
Auxerre hold a large attacking edge, scoring 1.3 goals per away match compared with Le Havre's 0.3 per home match. Auxerre's away figure is level with the league average for an away side on the road, while Le Havre's home figure is worse than the league average for a home side at home. Across the whole season, Le Havre average 0.7 goals per match and Auxerre average 1.3, so the gap is consistent.
Defensive solidity
Le Havre hold a large defensive edge, conceding 1.0 goals per home match against Auxerre's 4.0 per away match. Le Havre's home figure is better than the league average for a home side at home, while Auxerre's away figure is worse than the league average for an away side on the road. Across the whole season, Le Havre concede 1.3 per match and Auxerre concede 2.7, so the away side's vulnerability is not just a venue issue.
Shots on target
Le Havre average 4.5 shots on target per match compared with Auxerre's 4.33, a marginal edge for the home side. Le Havre also fire more shots off target, 4.83 per match against 3.33 for Auxerre. Both teams see exactly 2.0 of their shots blocked per match, so there is no difference there. Auxerre hold slightly less possession, 44.67% against Le Havre's 49.33%.
When goals arrive
Auxerre are most dangerous in two windows: they score 38% of their goals between minutes 31-45 and another 38% between 61-75. Le Havre's scoring is entirely back-loaded, with 50% of their goals coming between 61-75 and 50% between 76-90. Le Havre are equally vulnerable in two windows, conceding 38% of their goals in each of 0-15 and 46-60. Auxerre are most vulnerable late, conceding 25% of their goals in each of 76-90 and 46-60.
Goal environment
Auxerre's matches have been far higher-scoring: 83% of their matches this season have gone over 2.5 goals, compared with just 33% for Le Havre. Auxerre's away matches are the higher-scoring ones, with 67% of their home games going over 2.5 goals against 100% of their away games. Le Havre's matches are back-loaded, with 0% producing 2+ goals before half time versus 50% after it. Auxerre's matches are also back-loaded, with 50% producing 2+ goals before half time versus 67% after it.
What to expect
This match is shaped by the contrast between Le Havre's home solidity and Auxerre's away fragility. Le Havre concede just 1.0 goals per home match, while Auxerre concede 4.0 per away match, so the home side should be able to keep things tight. Auxerre's attack is the more dangerous, scoring 1.3 goals per away match against Le Havre's 0.3 per home match, but their defensive record on the road is a major concern. The market prices the total at 2.5 goals with a slight lean to the over, reflecting Auxerre's high-scoring matches. Expect a tight, low-scoring first half with the game opening up after the break.