UEFA Champions League 26/27 · Round 3 ·
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven preview: Porto host Eindhoven with both sides chasing a first win
Porto welcome Eindhoven to the Estadio do Dragao with both clubs still looking for their first win of the season after two league matches. The clearest signal in the data is Eindhoven's defensive edge, which is large against the league baseline while Porto's home attack has yet to score.
By 10xSharp · Published
Who is missing
Eindhoven carry the heavier absence list, with five players unavailable through injury, including forwards Alassane Plea and Ricardo Pepi and midfielder Jerdy Schouten. Porto are missing midfielder Vasco Sousa and forward William Gomes, both through injury. Neither side loses a leading scorer to these absences, as Porto's top scorers Samu Aghehowa and Gabriel Veiga are available, and Eindhoven's only scorer this season, defender Sergino Dest, is also fit.
Players to watch
Porto's attack has been split evenly between forward Samu Aghehowa and midfielder Gabriel Veiga, each with one goal in this competition this season. Eindhoven's entire goal output has come from defender Sergino Dest, whose single goal represents 100% of their league scoring. That reliance on a defender is unusual, and it leaves Eindhoven without a forward who has found the net in their opening two matches.
Recent form
Porto have lost both of their opening two league matches, leaving them 30th in the form table, while Eindhoven have drawn one and lost one to sit 26th. Porto's last six matches across all competitions show four wins and two defeats, with 14 goals scored, while Eindhoven have won two, drawn one and lost three in their last six. Eindhoven have lost their last two matches, and Porto have also lost their most recent match.
Where they stand
Porto sit 30th in the table with zero points from two matches, while Eindhoven are 26th with one point. Porto have lost their only home match this season, conceding two goals without scoring, while Eindhoven have lost their only away match, conceding one goal without scoring. Both sides are still searching for a first win, and neither has managed a clean sheet in the league.
Head to head
These clubs have met only once, in 2016, when Eindhoven won 3-0. That meeting was not in this competition, and it is now ten years old, so it offers little guidance for this fixture. The single match produced three total goals, with Eindhoven scoring all of them.
Attacking threat
Porto have failed to score in their only home match this season, while Eindhoven have also failed to score in their only away match. Both sides are worse than the league average for their respective venues, with Porto's home attack and Eindhoven's away attack both rated as large deficits. The attack edge is level, meaning neither side stands further from its own baseline than the other.
Defensive solidity
Eindhoven hold a large defensive edge, conceding one goal in their only away match against a league baseline of 2.44 for away sides. Porto have conceded two goals in their only home match, which is marginally worse than the league average of 1.64 for home sides. Eindhoven's away defence is better than the league average, while Porto's home defence is worse.
Shot efficiency
Eindhoven average 3.5 shots on target per match compared to Porto's 2.5, so they work the opposing goalkeeper harder. Porto average 4.0 shots off target per match while Eindhoven average 3.5, and Eindhoven also see more of their shots blocked, at 2.5 per match against Porto's 1.5.
When goals arrive
Porto have scored all of their league goals in the second half, with one each in the 46-60 and 61-75 minute windows. Eindhoven's only goal also came in the 46-60 minute window. Porto concede most heavily in the 46-60 and 76-90 minute windows, with 40% of their goals against in each, while Eindhoven concede in the 31-45 and 61-75 windows.
Goal environment
Porto's home matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 0% of cases this season, while their away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 100% of cases. Eindhoven's away matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 0% of cases. Porto's second halves have gone over 1.5 goals in 100% of their matches, while their first halves have gone over 1.5 goals in 0%.
The verdict
This looks like a match between two sides still finding their feet, with neither attack firing and both defences showing contrasting profiles. Eindhoven's defensive edge is the clearest signal, but their away attack has been just as blunt as Porto's home attack. The market prices Porto as favourites, but the data suggests a tight, low-scoring contest is most likely.