Bundesliga 26/27 · Round 5 ·
Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen preview: Dortmund host Bremen with the table's top side in dominant form
Dortmund welcome Bremen to Signal Iduna Park with a perfect league record and the division's tightest defence, having conceded just two goals in four matches. The market prices the home side at 71% to win, and the season numbers point the same way.
By 10xSharp · Published
This preview was published before kickoff. The match has finished: see the result and full stats. Read the match report.
Injury lists hit Bremen harder
Dortmund are without midfielders Emre Can and Giannis Konstantelias, both listed as injury absentees. Bremen's list is longer, with five players out: midfielders Jens Stage and Salim Musah, defender Moussa N'Diaye, and forwards Justin Njinmah and Keke Topp. None of Bremen's unavailable players are among their top scorers or assisters, so the visitors' main attacking threats remain available. Dortmund's absentees are also outside their leading scorers and creators. The home side's depth looks less tested by this list than Bremen's, whose forward options are reduced by three injury absences.
Fullkrug leads Bremen, Dortmund spread the goals
Bremen's Niclas Fullkrug has scored three goals in four league matches this season, which is 38% of his team's goals and the highest share of any player on either side. Dortmund's attack is more distributed, with Fabio Silva, Felix Nmecha and Serhou Guirassy each on two goals. Guirassy also leads Dortmund's assist chart with two, while Bremen's Marco Grull has three assists and two goals. Grull is the away side's most productive creator, and Fullkrug remains their main scoring threat. Dortmund's spread of goals across three players makes them harder to shut down.
Dortmund perfect, Bremen mixed
Dortmund have won all four of their league matches this season, taking 12 points from their last four, while Bremen have seven points from a record of two wins, one draw and one defeat. Dortmund's latest result was a win, and Bremen also won their most recent league match. Across their last six matches in all competitions, Dortmund have won all six, scoring 17 goals and conceding four, with four clean sheets. Bremen's last six have brought three wins, one draw and two losses, with 11 goals scored and 15 conceded. Dortmund have had 20 days since their last match, while Bremen have had just over seven days since their last match in any competition.
Top versus eighth, home record stark
Dortmund sit first in the table with 12 points from four matches, while Bremen are eighth with seven points. Dortmund have won both home matches and both away matches, with a home goal difference of plus five and an away goal difference of plus two. Bremen have won both home matches but have yet to win away, drawing one and losing one on the road, with an away goal difference of minus three. The home side's perfect record at this venue contrasts with Bremen's winless away form. Dortmund's home goal difference of five is the stronger of the two venue records.
Dortmund dominate this fixture
In their last 10 meetings, Dortmund have won seven, Bremen one, with two draws. The most recent meeting was in May, when Dortmund won 2-0 at Bremen. At this ground, in the five meetings played here, Dortmund have won three, Bremen one, with one draw. The average total goals across their meetings is 2.8, and both teams have scored in 50% of them. Dortmund's record at this venue is strong, with three wins from five, and Bremen have not won here in their last three visits. The head-to-head clearly favours the home side.
Home attack edges the away attack
Dortmund score 2.5 goals per home match this season, while Bremen score 1.0 goals per away match. That is a clear gap in favour of the home side's attack at this venue. Dortmund's overall season scoring rate is 2.2 goals per match, so their home output is slightly higher than their own season average. Bremen's away scoring rate of 1.0 is half their overall season rate of 2.0 goals per match. The home side's attack is the more dangerous of the two for this fixture, and Bremen's away scoring is notably weaker than their home form.
Dortmund's home defence is impenetrable
Dortmund have conceded zero goals at home this season, while Bremen have conceded 2.5 goals per away match. That is a stark contrast in defensive solidity at this venue. Dortmund's overall season conceding rate is 0.5 goals per match, so their home record is even better than their season average. Bremen's away conceding rate of 2.5 is higher than their overall season rate of 2.0 goals conceded per match. The home side's defence is the stronger of the two, and Bremen's away defence has been leaky.
Dortmund test the keeper more
Dortmund average 5.0 shots on goal per match, while Bremen average 4.75 shots on goal per match. The gap is small, but Dortmund work the opposing goalkeeper slightly harder. Dortmund also see more of their shots blocked, averaging 4.75 blocked shots per match compared to Bremen's 2.5. Dortmund's shots off goal per match is 6.5, while Bremen's is 4.0. The home side's higher blocked shot count suggests they shoot more often into crowded areas. Overall, Dortmund's shot volume is higher across all three categories.
Both sides score late, Bremen leak after halftime
Dortmund's most dangerous scoring windows are the 61-75 and 76-90 minute bands, where they score 33% of their goals in each. Bremen's peak scoring band is 76-90, where they score 50% of their goals. Bremen's most vulnerable period is 46-60, where they concede 38% of their goals. Dortmund have scored first in three of their four matches, while Bremen have scored first once. Dortmund's average first goal comes at minute 36, while Bremen's comes at minute 54. Both teams are second-half scorers, but Bremen are also vulnerable right after halftime.
Bremen's matches trend higher scoring
Across the whole season, 50% of Dortmund's matches have gone over 2.5 goals, while 75% of Bremen's matches have gone over 2.5 goals. At this venue, Dortmund's over 2.5 rate is also 50%, while Bremen's away over 2.5 rate is 50%. Dortmund have failed to score in 0% of their matches, and Bremen have also failed to score in 0% of their matches. Dortmund's clean sheet rate at home is 100%, while Bremen's clean sheet rate away is 0%. Dortmund's matches average 2.5 combined goals at home, while Bremen's away matches average 3.5 combined goals. Bremen's matches have been higher scoring overall, but Dortmund's home matches have been tighter.
Home dominance points to a Dortmund win
Dortmund's perfect league record, their impenetrable home defence, and their strong head-to-head record against Bremen all point to a home win. Bremen's away form is weak, with no wins on the road and a leaky defence. The market prices Dortmund at 71% to win, and the season numbers support that read. The totals market leans over, with a line of 3.25 goals, but Dortmund's home matches have been tighter than Bremen's away matches. Expect Dortmund to control the match and Bremen to struggle for goals away from home.