Cincinnati vs Charlotte — MLS 2026
Cincinnati: 2 yellow cards, 0 red cards
Charlotte: 1 yellow card, 0 red cards
Pre-match analysis, published Sep 12, 2026, 4:39 AM UTC before kickoff and not revised after the result. Live standings and season stats are on the MLS page.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Charlotte sit 9th with 39 points, six places and eight points clear of Cincinnati in 15th, but the home and away splits tell a more nuanced story. Cincinnati's 7 home wins and +10 home goal difference dwarf their 1 away win and -17 away difference, while Charlotte's 4 away wins and -4 away goal difference show a side that travels competently without dominating.
Cincinnati
CharlotteScoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's home attack is potent, averaging 2.8 goals per home match, well above Charlotte's 1.5 goals per away match. Charlotte's away scoring is modest, but they have failed to score in only 18% of away matches, so they carry a real threat despite the lower volume.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Attacking Share: share of all goals in a team's matches that it scored — 50 means it scores as much as it concedes.
Defence
Charlotte's defence is the more reliable unit, conceding 1.8 goals per away match compared to Cincinnati's 1.9 at home, and Charlotte keep a clean sheet in 18% of away games versus Cincinnati's 18% at home. The edge is narrow, but Charlotte's overall season record of 1.38 goals conceded per game is far stronger than Cincinnati's 2.43.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Recent rows count each side's last matches in any competition — MLS matches by sample: Last 5 — CIN 5 of 5, CLT 5 of 5; Last 5, Home/Away — CIN 2 of 5, CLT 5 of 5.
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, with Cincinnati scoring 35% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90 and Charlotte 21% in the same window. Cincinnati also concede 25% of their goals in that period, so late drama is likely, and Charlotte's 24% conceded share mirrors that vulnerability.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Cincinnati's home matches average 4.73 combined goals, far above Charlotte's 3.27 away average, and 54.55% of Cincinnati home games have gone over 3.5 goals versus just 27.27% of Charlotte away games. Both teams have scored in 80% of Cincinnati's recent home matches and 60% of Charlotte's recent away matches, so a high-scoring game is plausible but not certain.
Match Totals · Both Teams' Goals
Match Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 59%; the market gives it 51%.
Under is the complement
The total goals market prices the over at 49% for the 3.5 line, while our model puts the probability at 41%. Our read sits about 8 percentage points below the market's, suggesting the season record points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
Sample · Cincinnati 11 home games · Charlotte 11 away games this season
Sample · Cincinnati 11 home · Charlotte 11 away
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker price is market-implied · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Smart Predictions
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Cincinnati conceded on average 3.3 goals per match while Charlotte conceded on average 0.3 goals per match.
Charlotte seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Charlotte have averaged 0.4 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Cincinnati have been awarded an average of 4.6 corners per match, while Charlotte have averaged 6 corners.
Charlotte conceded 7 less goals than Cincinnati in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Charlotte have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 18 months, Cincinnati and Charlotte have faced each other 3 times, with Charlotte winning 2 times.
Standings & Form · MLS 2026
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Charlotte sit 9th with 39 points, six places and eight points clear of Cincinnati in 15th, but the home and away splits tell a more nuanced story. Cincinnati's 7 home wins and +10 home goal difference dwarf their 1 away win and -17 away difference, while Charlotte's 4 away wins and -4 away goal difference show a side that travels competently without dominating.
CincinnatiCharlotteHead-to-Head · LAST 9 MEETINGS
Charlotte have had the better of this fixture, winning 4 of the 9 meetings to Cincinnati's 2 with 3 draws, and Charlotte are unbeaten in the last five meetings with three wins. The most recent meeting ended 2-2 in Charlotte, and the average of 2.67 goals per meeting points to a moderately high-scoring contest.
Scoring Profile
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Attack
Cincinnati's home attack is potent, averaging 2.8 goals per home match, well above Charlotte's 1.5 goals per away match. Charlotte's away scoring is modest, but they have failed to score in only 18% of away matches, so they carry a real threat despite the lower volume.
Goals Scored · Season
Failed to Score · Season
Attacking Share · Season
Goals Scored · Last 5
Failed to Score · Last 5
Attacking Share: share of all goals in a team's matches that it scored — 50 means it scores as much as it concedes.
Defence
Charlotte's defence is the more reliable unit, conceding 1.8 goals per away match compared to Cincinnati's 1.9 at home, and Charlotte keep a clean sheet in 18% of away games versus Cincinnati's 18% at home. The edge is narrow, but Charlotte's overall season record of 1.38 goals conceded per game is far stronger than Cincinnati's 2.43.
Goals Conceded · Season
Clean Sheets · Season
Goals Conceded · Last 5
Recent rows count each side's last matches in any competition — MLS matches by sample: Last 5 — CIN 5 of 5, CLT 5 of 5; Last 5, Home/Away — CIN 2 of 5, CLT 5 of 5.
Goals & Timing
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Both teams are most dangerous in the final 15 minutes, with Cincinnati scoring 35% of their goals between minutes 76 and 90 and Charlotte 21% in the same window. Cincinnati also concede 25% of their goals in that period, so late drama is likely, and Charlotte's 24% conceded share mirrors that vulnerability.
Goal Lines · Season 2026
Pre-match · Sep 12, 2026
Cincinnati's home matches average 4.73 combined goals, far above Charlotte's 3.27 away average, and 54.55% of Cincinnati home games have gone over 3.5 goals versus just 27.27% of Charlotte away games. Both teams have scored in 80% of Cincinnati's recent home matches and 60% of Charlotte's recent away matches, so a high-scoring game is plausible but not certain.
Match Totals · Both Teams' Goals
Match Forecast · Total goals 3.5
We give the under 59%; the market gives it 51%.
Under is the complement
The total goals market prices the over at 49% for the 3.5 line, while our model puts the probability at 41%. Our read sits about 8 percentage points below the market's, suggesting the season record points to fewer goals than the odds imply.
Sample · Cincinnati 11 home games · Charlotte 11 away games this season
Sample · Cincinnati 11 home · Charlotte 11 away
Model price from season goal record · bookmaker price is market-implied · statistical insight only · not advice
Statistical insight only · not advice
Match Trends · Smart Predictions
In the last 3 matches of the MLS, Cincinnati conceded on average 3.3 goals per match while Charlotte conceded on average 0.3 goals per match.
Charlotte seem to be in a good form. They won 2 out of the last 3 matches of the MLS.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 0.8 cards in the first half per match, while Charlotte have averaged 0.4 cards.
In their last 3 MLS matches, Cincinnati have been awarded an average of 4.6 corners per match, while Charlotte have averaged 6 corners.
Charlotte conceded 7 less goals than Cincinnati in the last 5 matches of the MLS this season.
In their last 5 MLS matches, Cincinnati have received an average of 2.2 cards per match, while Charlotte have averaged 1.8 cards.
Chances are good to see a goal from Cincinnati within the first half. They have averaged one goal before halftime in the MLS this season.
In the last 18 months, Cincinnati and Charlotte have faced each other 3 times, with Charlotte winning 2 times.
About The Match
Charlotte arrive as the form side and the better travellers, while Cincinnati's season splits reveal a team that is dangerous at home but fragile on the road. Cincinnati score 2.8 goals per home match and concede 1.9, whereas Charlotte manage just 1.5 away but concede only 1.8, so the venue gap is real but narrower than the table suggests. The key uncertainty is whether Charlotte's defensive solidity, 1.38 goals conceded per game overall, can contain a Cincinnati attack that has scored in 91% of home matches.